1. Probability and Chance, Fritz Mauthner's Studies of Improbability

GA 163/1915-08-23/p019 ·1915-08-23 · English MediumMedium alignmentSome paragraph re-numbering between this translation and the German original — the locus may slip by a paragraph or two.
Record: unknown. How this text was taken down (shorthand transcript, listeners' notes or manuscript) is not on record here. Unknown is not an assurance of a stenogram: check the edition's own notes before resting an argument on one word.

So one can light upon \(100\) symbols. Blindly tapping away, the probability of getting the right one is \(1\) in \(100\), according to the principle explained at hand of the dice. Thus the probability of the Chinaman totally ignorant of the language in which Faust is written striking the right key is \(\frac{1}{100}\). “But since, according to elementary rules, the chance of accidentally producing the whole of Faust with its \(300,000\) letters equals the product of \(300,000\) partial probabilities, the probability of an accidental production of Faust must be calculated as \(1:{100}^{300,000}\).”

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Cite: GA 163/1915-08-23/p019 · edition English